United Kingdom

Economy:

  • GDP: 2.678 trillion USD
  • Sectors: Agriculture 0.7% Industry 20.5% Services 78.9%
  • Unemployment: 7.2%
  • Import Partners: Germany, China, Netherlands, USA
  • GINI per capita: $41,680
  • Fitch Rating: AA+ Stable
  • 4 Largest Urban Areas: London, Birmingham, Manchester, West Yorkshire.

People:

  • Population Size: 64.1 Million
  • Religion: 4.8% Muslim, 59.3% Christian 32.3% No religion (or not stated)
  • Media Age: 40.4 years
  • Languages: English
  • Literacy: 99%

Geography:

  • Total: 243,610 sq km
  • Land: 241,930 sq km
  • Water: 1,680 sq km
  • Border countries: Ireland,

Media:

  • Radio: BBC Network, Global, Bauer, Communicorp, UTV, Orion, Other
  • Television: BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5, Sky.
  • Print: News UK, Mail, Mirror, Telegraph, Independent, Guardian, Star, Express, Times, Evening Standard, Metro
  • Internet: 82% penetration
  • Mobile phones: 99%
  • Smartphones: 61%

Politics:

The United Kingdom of Great Britain came into being as a personal Union between the Kingdom of Scotland and Kingdom of England in 1707. It is a constitutional monarchy composed of a Royal Family which does not exercise executive powers and a parliament which is headed up by a prime minister. In 2010, Conservative party leader, David Cameron lead his party to emerge as the strongest party and formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats. Elections are scheduled for 2015. In the 19th century the British Empire covered one-fourth of the earth’s surface. The UK went into decline during two world wars and also by the Irish Republic’s withdrawal from the union. The British Empire lost nearly all of the commonwealth and overseas territories and rebranded itself as an active member of the European union of nations while remaining outside of the economic and monetary union. The UK still holds residual influence with the United States, UN Security council, NATO and the Commonwealth.

Suffrage: 18

Voting Patterns:

  1. Labour(1945)
  2. Conservative(1951)
  3. Conservative(1955)
  4. Conservative(1959)
  5. Labour(1964)
  6. Labour(1966)
  7. Conservative(1970)
  8. Labour(1974)
  9. Conservative(1979)
  10. Conservative(1983)
  11. Conservative(1987)
  12. Conservative(1992)
  13. Labour(1997)
  14. Labour (2001)
  15. Labour (2005)
  16. Conservative(2010)

Significantly Participates in:

  1. NATO
  2. European Union
  3. G8
  4. UN Security Council

Military:

  • Expenditure: 62 Billion USD
  • Active Personnel: 191,410
  • Males fit for service: 12 million
  • Females fit for service: 11 million
  • Military Commands: Army, Royal Navy, Royal Air Force

Military Suppliers (10 years):

  1. United States(2,969 Million USD)
  2. Netherlands (514 Million USD)
  3. Germany (349 Million USD)
  4. France (345 Million USD)
  5. Sweden (243 Million USD)

Military Leaders:

  • Nick Houghton (Chief of Defence Staff)
  • Nicholas Patrick Carter (Army)
  • George Michael Zambellas (Navy)
  • Andrew Douglas Pulford(Airforce)

Last Engagements:

  • Falklands
  • Gulf War I
  • Gulf war II
  • Afghanistan (2002)
  • Balkans
  • Northern Ireland
  • Libya

Security Issues:

  • Terrorism
  • Radical Islam
  • Cold War
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King Abdullah II of Jordan: Leader Profile

Today we look at King Abdullah II of Jordan. Jordan is important to look at because:

  • Jordan is seen as a significant US partner in the Middle East
  • Jordan is Israel’s eastern neighbour
  • Jordan currently houses millions of refugees from Syria, Iraq and the Palestinian/Israeli territories
  • Jordan doesn’t have oil
  • Jordan is involved in the coalition against Islamic State
  • Jordan assumed a nonpermanent seat on the UN Security Council for the 2014-15 term

King Abdullah II

Jordan  is a country that could easily be forgotten among the squabbling of Sunni, Shiite, Persians, Arabs, Jews and Muslims, however the country of 7 million manages to find itself in the news and corridors of power far more than counties many times larger and richer. Jordan has been noted as a significant ally of the United States, playing significant roles in modernising, liberalising, intelligence gathering, war fighting and deal brokering. This is due to the actions of the royal family which takes a very active and public role in shaping, not only the fate of the bedouin tribes and former refugees that live in Jordan, but of the wider Middle East.

Background of Jordan

The Leader Profile

  • Name: Abdullah II ibn al-Hussein
  • Born: January 1962
  • Religion: Islam
  • Family: Wife, 4 Children
  • Languages: Arabic, English,

Education:

  • Islamic Educational College, Amman, Jordan
  • St Edmunds, Surrey England
  • Eaglebrook School MA, USA
  • Deerfield Academy MA, USA
  • Sandhurst, UK
  • Pembroke College
  • Georgetown University

Career:

  • 1980- Second Lieutenant in British Army
  • 1986- Captain in Jordanian Army
  • 1998-Major General Jordan special forces
  • 1999- King of Jordan

Extra Curricular:

  • Football (Soccer)
  • Skydiving
  • Scuba diving
  • Boating
  • Cars and motorcycles
  • Rally racing
  • Scifi (Startrek)
  • Film and cinema
  • Military Artefacts

Opponents:

  • Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Bashar Al Assad
  • Toujan al-Faisal
  • Human Rights Groups

Allies:

  • Barak Obama
  • Sabah al-Sabah (Kuwait)
  • Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani(Qatar)
  • Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan (Abu Dhabi)
  • Sheikh Humaid bin Rashid Al Nuaimi
  • Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum (Dubai)
  • Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammed Al Sharqi (Fujairah)
  • Saud bin Saqr al Qasimi (Ras al Khaimah)
  • Sultan bin Mohamed Al-Qasimi (Sharjah)
  • Saud bin Rashid Al Mu’alla (Umm al-Quwain)
  • Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa (Bahrain)

King Abdullah II

King Abdullah describes himself as “a man of action”. His military achievements and vibrant extra curricular activities confirm this. He is described as suave, erudite and charming; a man who acts, speaks and carries himself like royalty. When his father, King Hussein ruled Jordan, the then king was very concerned about naming a more statesman like ruler as his successor, but Abdullah was selected in 1999 because it may have been deemed that a military mind was still needed in a very demanding security environment. From a very young age, Abdullah and his younger brother wanted to be like their father, Hussein. They got involved in the military and became very hands on and tactile in their youth and adolescence. They insisted on military training from a very young age and Abdullah has had a military career his whole life. He has been very hands on in his running of the state as well, donning disguises to “walk among the people”. He told CNN reporters in 2000 that, “The greatest fear I have, as time goes on, you can very easily become isolated”.

King Abdullah speaks in simple and clear English language and actively mirrors people that he is speaking to using visual cues such as nodding of the head to encourage their speech. He has a squint, which may be irritation from his contact lenses. His vocal pace, tone and body gesticulations indicate his western education and military training. He presents a restrained and confident range of body movements with his hands usually within the frame of his body. King Abdullah is not tall. He stands a quite a few centimetres shorter than Prince Charles of the UK who is himself about 176 cm (5 foot 10 inches). When sitting, his feet tend to only just touch the ground. He is, however, large and well built. His military training and active lifestyle would make him a significant physical presence.

King Abdullah sits in a very rigid way. His hands tends to be folded in from of him left over right or at his thighs in a very military way. Both feet are usually completely flat to the ground and he displays very restrained movements. Many of his speech patterns; “Have a go”, “bloody” are quintessentially British in their origin. His mother was English and from the military, the daughter of a British serviceman and his father was educated and trained in the UK  so Military and English mannerisms permeate his psychology.

King Abdullah experimented with a moustache in his role as king. This was very reminiscent of the moustache that his father wore as king.

King Abdullah and old King Hussain

King Abdullah and old King Hussain

Despite his “man of the people” image, King Abdullah is almost an Englishman among his Hashemite, Jordanian and Palestinian subjects. His mannerisms and Arabic are imperfect and always contain a certain formality that doesn’t fit with the local chieftains. King Abdullah uses a lot of religious references in his language. While this is very traditional, he has very modern or liberal values especially in regards to the role of women. His wife is an ultra modern Palestinian lady with a very active role in advocacy, and empowerment. She is rarely seen with traditional Islamic hijab.

 

Myers Briggs

King Abdullah presents as an Extraverted Sensing Thinker who tends to use Judgment to plan their activities and make decisions early. He derives control through building institutions and maintaining predictability. This would Make him an ESTJ.

If this is the case then King Abdullah is a logical, earnest traditionalist who enjoys order and regulation. He is a serious individual who is thorough and dependable. He is extraverted in his sensing, seeing situations and reacting to them quickly and vigorously. Tradition and symbolism plays a great part in King Abdullah’s mind, as he works on concrete steps to fulfill visions of the future. He will be exceedingly polite and accommodating, pushing himself to fulfill needs before asking for assistance. King Abdullah, like his father before him values personal connections and friendships. King Hussein became a firm friend of President Clinton and Similarly, King Abdullah has formed a close personal friendship with President Obama. He is a realistic, matter-of –fact leader who will tell it like it is and is exceedingly competent at statecraft and the art of war. He is a strong believer in rules and procedures ad still carries a lot of psychological artifacts from his boarding school and military life. As a defender of the status quo, he is in no hurry to oppose American hegemony, or the institutions of monarchy. He is action oriented and can sometimes forget to consider the niceties of international diplomacy.

Themes and Quotes:

Israel and Palestine

Jordan is the rarely mentioned third party in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinians. Throughout the history of these areas, Jordan has battled with both the Israeli military and the PLO and has had tense relations with other neighbours.

King Abdullah’s father achieved an historic settlement with Israel in 1994 recognising the state of Israel and formalising relations with their neigbour. Along with Bill Clinton, Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat, King Hussein had made significant progress towards brining peace to the long disputed area between the Mediterranean sea and Iraq. Since that time, the inheritors of this significant peace accord have been unable to turn this into a permanent and peaceful resolution for the Israeli and Palestinian people.

King Abdullah firmly believes that the resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict will lead to peace in the middle east.

“We need leaders with courage to take the tough decisions”

“The core reason for instability in the region is the Israeli Palestinian problem.”

“We need the undivided attention on the United States (to fix the problem)”

“Jordan doesn’t want the West Bank.”

“The only credible, viable solution is the two state solution”

“The challenge is to reach the Israeli people”

“It is the injustice felt towards the Palestinian people that allow other state and non state actors to take the role of being defenders of the Palestinian People”.

Syria

The crisis in Syria has lead to over 1.4 million refugees and displaced people. This adds to the displaced Iraqis and displaced Palestinians that have been welcomed into the Arab state. Jordan is used to nomadic and refugee populations and has granted education, rights and even citizenship to the populations that it hosts. King Abdullah was quick to distance himself even more from Bashar Al Assad, at first pleading with him to be reach out to his people and then joining in calls for a regime change. Jordan will not take part in any military action in Syria.

“I think Bashar needs to reach out.”(2012)

“Keep as close to the people as possible” (this is what King Abdullah learned from his father)

“If I was him, I would leave office.”

“There is no coming back from the abyss [of civil war].”

“This is the last chance that they have [to leave].”

ISIS 

In 2012: “there are pockets of Al-qaida like elements in Syria.”

“Truly a global fight against terrorism.”

‘The reaction to ISIS has got to be quick…and we have not been quick.”

“They are cross border in Syria and Iraq.”

“Baghdadi (ISIS leader) is a heretic.”

“I was always against the de-baathification…I said it would create tremendous instability in the country”

“We have let down the Iraqis”

US relations

Abdullah has a strong and personal relationship with Barak Obama. This is highly reminiscent of King Hussein’s relationship with Bill Clinton. He has gone as far as to removed his tie to mirror and complement Obama, who was not in a tie during a press conference. An interesting limiter on the relationship with the US is the relationship with Vladimir Putin. Abdullah continues to maintain a close friendship with the Russian President and may quote him on occasion.

“The US and Jordan are on the same page.”

“I’m always impressed with how [Obama] looks at things”

“We have a personal relationship”

“I tend to be more on the aggressive side”

“[Obama] tend to be the sensible one.”

“We have tremendous chemistry.”

“I’m very comfortable with the relationship that we have.”

Democracy

Abdullah has no motive to make his Country into a democracy. He understands what sounds to make, speaking of “fairness” and “equality” but despite there being some sort of elections, there is no significant power outside of the throne. Abdullah embraces and seeks modernity but his cultural, royal and military background would have imbued him with a strong instinct against devolving power. Many Western commentators consider him to be a benign dictator and much less of an issue than the other regional monarchs and strong-men. In Jordanian society, tribal affiliation and the bedouin culture still permeates strongly. Even if Abdullah was to drive his country towards democracy, it would literally remain a foreign concept to the people living there.

“[Al-Sisi] is bringing strength to his country, he is bringing stability to his country.”

“the Hashemite throne, and perhaps Jordan itself, will not survive the coming decades if he does not move his country briskly toward modernity”

King Abdullah II is as much an inheritor of TE Lawrence as he is his father and grandfather. His country is the ear to the ground and regional force that the West can depend on. Jordan is resource poor, compared to its neighbours and as such has to rely on relationships rather than resources for creating value. This is the reason why Jordan was a willing member of the attack on Israel in 1948 and then decades later the second country to accept it’s neighbours legitimacy. The country and its leaders need friends more than it needs enemies. This may also have why King Hussain initially considered a statesman as his heir rather than his military son. Abdullah has none the less sought out and secured powerful alliances with the United States and the Emirates, forming coalitions with them against agreed threats. Abdullah has also maintained relations with Israel and with Saudi Arabia while at the same time leaving room for Iraqi and Iranian relationships. King Abdullah II seems to be a collector of titles and awards from foreign countries furthering the evidence of his affinity for political networking.

Jordan’s leader is perpetually punching above his weight militarily and politically to remain relevant and recognised as a constructive partner in the Middle East. In the past the kings of Jordan have switched alliances whenever it suited them and this will be true for Abdullah II. Conversely, Abdullah is keen to maintain relationships with everyone. This means that Russia, China, Syria, Iraq and Iran will find approaching the King to be easier than other world leaders. Cracks will show when Abdullah has to make a hard choice between “friends” with equal benefits. King Abdullah’s media image is carefully crafted. He likes the camera and has even been an extra in an episode of Star Trek.

 

References:

CIA World Fact Book

Fitch Ratings Agency

World Bank

NATO

SIPRI

WTO

Media:

ABC interview

February 2014 Bilateral talks at White House

Reaction to death of Pilot 2015

CBS and ISIS

Davos 2010

Jordan

Economy:

  • GDP: 33.6 billion USD
  • Sectors: Agriculture 3.2% Industry 29.9% Services 67%
  • Unemployment: 14%
  • Import Partners: Saudi Arabia, China, US, Italy
  • GINI per capita: $4,950
  • Fitch Rating: B1 Stable
  • 4 Largest Cities: Amman, Zaraq, Irbid, Russeifa.

People:

  • Population Size: 8 Million
  • Religion: 97.2% Muslim, 2.2% Christian
  • Media Age: 21.8 years
  • Languages: Arabic (official), English
  • Literacy: 95.9%

Geography:

  • Total: 89,342 sq km
  • Land: 88,802 sq km
  • Water: 540 sq km
  • Border countries: Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, West Bank

Media:

  • Radio: Jordan Radio and Television Corporation (JRTV); Sana TV; Ro’ya TV; ordan Series Channel; Jordan Flash Channel; Alhakeka; Nourmina Satellite Channel.
  • Television: Amman Net Radio; Radio Sawt El Ghad; Radio mood FM; Jordan Radio; Radio Rotana; Play 99.6; Amen FM; Factjo; Radio Fann; Radio Hayat FM; Radio Albalad; Ayyam FM; Mood 92; Spin Radio 94.1; Hala FM; Melody FM; HD fm; JBC radio; Beat 102.5 FM; Farah Al-Nas Radio.
  • Print: Ad-Dustour; Al-Arab Al-Yawm; Al Ghad; Al Ra’i Assabeel; Al Anbat; The Jordan Times; Al Liwaa Shihan; Al Ahali; The Star
  • Internet: 47% penetration
  • Mobile phones: 97%
  • Smartphones: 38%

Politics:

In February 1999 King Hussein died. His son Abdullah, who was appointed crown prince on January 25, becomes King Abdullah II. Abdullah II is the 41st-generation direct descendant of the Prophet Mohammad.

The Hashemites are derived from Hashem, a grandson of Qusai and the great-grandfather of the Prophet Mohammad. The Hashemites of Jordan are thus direct descendants of the Prophet through his daughter, Fatima, and her husband, Ali.

The Abbasids, Islamic caliphs from the 8th to 13th century AD, were also of Hashemite lineage. During the Abbasid Empire, the Hashemites were revered as tribal chiefs in the Arabian Peninsula, known for resolving disputes and mediating between clans. When the Abbasid Empire collapsed, the Hashemite family remained as tribal leaders in their home region of the Hijaz (the east coast of the Red Sea) and as emirs in the holy city of Mecca, which they ruled into the 20th century.

The first king Abdullah was born in 1882 in Mecca. In the Arab Revolt, Abdullah led several Arab battalions against the Ottoman Turks. He spent much of his time amongst the local bedouin tribes. In 1921, he organised his first government in Amman, thus establishing the Emirate of Transjordan.

Independence: 1946

Suffrage: None

Leadership Patterns:

  1. Abdullah I (Naif as regent)
  2. Talal
  3. Regency council
  4. Hussein (Hassan as regent)
  5. Abdullah II

Significantly Participates in:

  1. Arab League
  2. Non Aligned Movement

Military:

  • Expenditure: 2,5 Billion USD
  • Active Personnel: 110,700
  • Males fit for service: 1,439,192
  • Females fit for service: 1,384,500
  • Military Commands:  Royal Jordanian Land Force (RJLF), Royal Jordanian Navy, Royal Jordanian Air Force (RJAF), Special Operations Command (Socom); Public Security Directorate

Military Leaders:

  •  Mashal Mohammad Al-Zaben (Army)
  •  Dari al-Zaben (Navy)
  • Mansour AlJobour(Airforce)

Last Engagements:

  • Arab-Israeli War
  • Black September
  • Yom Kippur
  • Libyan Civil War
  • War against ISIL

Security Issues:

  • Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL)
  • Israel
  • Palestinian refugees
  • Syrian Civil War

Goodluck Jonathan: Leader Profile

Today we look at Goodluck Jonathan, President of Nigeria. Nigeria is important to look at because:

  • Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa
  • Nigeria is the largest OPEC country in Africa relying heavily on oil revenue
  • Democratic presidential elections are to be held in March 2015 and has a risk of violence
  • The violent group, Boko Haram has operations in Northern Nigeria
  • Nigeria is around 50% larger than Afghanistan
  • Nigeria is a country with two significantly large distinct religious groups
  • The median age of Nigeria’s population is 18-19 years old
  • Nigeria has significant diasporas in Europe and the United States
  • Nigeria has a history of violent struggle, weak democratic institutions and corruption
  • China and Nigeria have a significant trading relationship under the current regime

Nigeria’s economic and demographic profile has all the ingredients for fragmentation, state fragility/failure and harbouring extremism. Should Nigeria devolve as a result of weak and failed leadership, the implications for the region and interested economic and cultural partners around the world could be significant.

Background of Nigeria

The Leader Profile

  • Name: Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan
  • Born: November 1957
  • Religion: Christian
  • Family: Wife, 2 Children
  • Languages: English, Izon, Nembe, Epie-Atissa, Ogbia and others
Goodluck Jonathan

Goodluck Jonathan

 

 

 

 

 

 

Education:

  • Canoe making
  • University of Port Harcourt Zoology B.Sc.
  • University of Port Harcourt Hydrobiology M.Sc.
  • University of Port Harcourt PhD (Incomplete)

Career:

  • Education inspector
  • Lecturer
  • Deputy Governer of Bayelsa (1999-2005)
  • Governor of Bayelsa (2005-2007)
  • Vice President (2007-2010)
  • Acting presedent (2010-2011)
  • President (2011-2015)

Extra Curricular

  • Football (Soccer)
  • Environmental protection officer
  • Canoe maker (as a child)

Opponents:

  • Tam David-West (Petrol subsidies)
  • Ibrahim Babangida(Former military president)
  • Northern factions within his People’s Democratic Party(PDP)
  • Henry Okah (Niger Delta guerrilla leader)
  • Mohammed Yusuf (Boko Haram leader)

Allies:

  • Chinese premiership
  • African Leaders
  • Southern factions within PDP

 

Goodluck Jonathan is described in some sources as beleaguered, embattled, powerless and lacking confidence. Despite these descriptions, Jonathan’s party, the PDP, has enjoyed widespread popularity inside his cogoodluck J3untry and in reputable polls. He wears a hat in all of his public appearances. This is a traditional bit of symbolism employed by some African leaders to show high status and poise. It is a quietly stated crown. He will usually wear a black trilby. In his own words “You can tell the character of a man by the hat he wears, and how he wears it.”. He has also said, “I was very weak, but once I discovered the secrets of hats, I was able to transform myself into a bold and confident person.”

 

President Jonathan is not a natural speaker, he is soft spoken and can often be seen reading from prepared notes. When speaking interactively and formally he can sometimes display a lack clarity and will sometimes spend a lot of time speaking in general terms rather than addressing the question or point. When confronted, Jonathan will fold his arms and his eyes dart around when being firm strongly suggesting that he would always prefer to avoid conflict.

Jonathan adopts a feet-forward, leaning, slouch when being interviewed and usually has to adjust himself when he slips too far down into his seat. His face is very animated, easily displaying a range of emotions from anger and annoyance, to pleasure and confidence. He tends to gesticulate with only one had and usually within the frame of his own body.  Along with his laced fingers, these are indicative of marked introversion and ongoing internal dialogues. He shows a lot of evidence of being very intelligent and on the topics that he is comfortable with he can easily speak about with great confidence and knowledge. While his conversations are reactive in nature (rather than active) they are usually very thoughtful. His impromptu speeches are usually punctuated with the “intellectual stammer” displayed by university professors and American president, Barak Obama.

Goodluck Johnson is fond of using examples, imagery and allegory in his conversations. He communicates best with representations.

Despite many speeches promising decisive actions, Jonathan tends to be very pensive in his political life. He is collaborative in his approach, depending on alliances and consensus rather than using personal charisma to get things done. Another contradiction is that Goodluck Jonathan will not “confront” the issues head on. In interviews he appears very pained to confront interviewers. For Jonathan, Boko Haram, Corruption and the economy are best tackled with logic, systematic and consensus driven structures which will “take time”.

Jonathan-Goodluck-1Jonathan is also wary of Africa’s history of strongmen. He stresses building systems as opposed to executive action. In his words, “leadership in Africa had failed on two important counts: (1) To Institutionalise democracy so that government was run transparently and for the benefit of the people; and (2) To inculcate, by personal example, in public officials and the general public values and codes of behavior consistent with operating a modern democratic nation- state.” Statements like these shows that he has little taste for personal power and legacy building.

Like many democratic African leaders, the prospects of civil war, military dictatorship and coup-de-tat looms in the background of President Jonathan’s mind. While religious and ethnic tensions are downplayed (especially with Boko Haram) Nigeria is notably a federalized country with literally hundreds of divisions between the oil rich south and Muslim north. Jonathan is from the south but he is not from a strongman or military background. Allegiances to him are based around the traditional allegiance to the PDP rather than his Ijaw ethnicity or Christian religion.

President Goodluck Jonathan presents as an introverted intuitive thinker who tends to withhold judgement and delay on important decisions. This would make him and INTP using the Myers Briggs Type Indicator.

If correct, then Jonathan is quiet and analytical who prefers to spend long periods of time on his own or with his very close relations. He is scientifically minded and enjoyed helping the environment and people in his career. While his hat wearing is customary, the wearing of a western hat is a way of him ensuring that he stands out. Similarly while his hats are often western, he does not dress western, and tends to wear dark coloured but otherwise West African style clothing. This indicates that he is “bucking” at both trends of being “too African” or “too Western”. He will be consultative and rely on a wide variety of sources for opinions and support. He is charming and witty when among people that he gets along with. He will be very reluctant to get into a situation that he may fail at and will often seek regional and international support for any situation that he thinks is too much for him to handle.

Jonathan is very intelligent. He can grasp and convey many very complex ideas and this is tempered by how thorough he is willing to explain these complex ideas, which can be too much for the purpose of the situation. His keen observations on other international actors allows him to always give appropriate responses to situations within his country, regionally and internationally.

Jonathan lacks a bombstic and iconoclastic personality. He also suffers from the same affliction that many leaders from the African continent suffer: There is a lack of confidence to act on the international stage. There is also likely to be a complex of inferiority when addressing the former colonial, military and economically superior powers.

Jonathan comes from a strong Christian background. He will usually use religious overtones in his speeches and justifications for his actions. The only place that Jonathan is seen without his hat will be in a church. Goodluck does not use religion as a divisive tool however and seems to use it as merely an identifier. Pentecostal and protestant Christianity is a strong influence in southern Nigeria.

Themes and Quotes:

Oil and the Economy

 Nigeria is a member of OPEC and is the biggest exporter in Africa. Oil revenues accounted for around  75% of budgetary revenues and 95% of export revenues in 2013 (World Bank) and around 15% of GDP. One of Jonathan’s aims is to diversify the Nigerian economy away from oil revenue and to agriculture to feed his young and growing population. Jonathan has made tentative efforts to control corruption surrounding the oil industry which is owned and operated by multinational, American and European companies. He helped to negotiate peace talks with the Niger Delta rebels who are part of his ethnicity. His approach to stolen oil is that this is being stolen for large foreign companies who knowingly refine and profit from the proceeds of crime. In this regard, he takes a long view to solving the problem.

Nigeria has China as a significant trading partner. Nigerian polls indicate that the country has one of the most pro-Chinese populations in the world. In the past decade, China has secured oil deals and contributed to infrastructure and military developments. This relationship is an obvious threat to Western interests.

“Oil companies investing 1 billion in project and less than 100,000 in local economy.”

“focus on diversification of non oil aspects of our economy”

“Agriculture is key because it employs (people)”

“we are intervening massively in agriculture.”

“Now we have mortgage and financing”

“Ordinarily by now, Nigerians needn’t be talking about power, because most of you who have been to Nigeria, you see the volume of gas we burn every day from the oil industry activities. If we even have to convert 50 percent of the gas we burn to power, I don’t think we’ll be talking about power.”

“The international community must support Nigeria”

“The stolen crude is refined abroad”

“We have privatized….(electricity and other infrastructure)”

Boko Haram

Northern Nigeria is primarily populated by muslims. Jonathan sees the threat of Boko Haram as a terror threat and not a religious one. He sees it also as a regional and an international threat rather than a local one. He does not see the threat as one to the integrity of Nigeria or to the main part of the Nigerian population. Though he is quick to compartmentalise the problem, he continuously calls on international aid to counter the threat and seems unwilling to dedicate himself or the Nigerian Army to unilateral action. Accusations of brutality by the armed forces may also be a factor in staying his hand. Failures by “greater powers” to controlled insurgencies (references to Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, etc.) is also part of his rational for not taking a more violent approach to addressing the group.

“Boko Haram is a local terror group”

“We should not play politics with Boko Haram”

“Overall it does not effect the Nigerian Economy”

“Some are not Nigerians but most are Nigerian”

“Just criminal elements”

“It worries me”

“Issue of Terror is imported from North Africa”

“reduce the collateral damage on the population”

“We are trying, I don’t want to rate myself.”

“We have the political will to get where we are going.”

“They have violated the culture and peaceful way of life in our country which took generations to build”.

“We are committed to working with other nations, other friendly governments to make sure we contain the problem in Mali.”

“We call on the rest of the world to work with us.”

 

Corruption

9 in 10 Nigerians suspect their government is corrupt. Faith in the electoral process is very low. Jonathan also takes a very systematic approach to corruption. He is very reluctant to go after corrupt individuals and confronting it head on. Instead he has made tactical moves in his own party and with legislation to cut off the sources of corruption. He is a big believer in making processes more transparent and recorded in order to prevent future corruption. One source of corruption was the fuel subsidy, allowing actors within Nigeria to buy cheap fuel and then sell it at full price outside of the country. Jonathan got rid of the subsidy and this proved very unpopular. Similarly, Jonathan calls on consensus and support to combat other forms of corruption (such as oil theft) and graft.

“Killing robbers don’t stop robbery. Throwing people into jail won’t stop corruption.”

“Leave us who have dead to bury our dead.”

“Main issues are corruption”

“And for now our domestic focus must be on electoral reform, delivering peace dividends to the Niger Delta and the rest of the country, and standing strong on our resolve against corruption.”

“The issues of corruption that also bother us is also human factor. In every society, it’s difficult to say you can eradicate corruption. But we’ve set up the machinery to make sure that we continue to reduce it. The war against it will be sustained and will continue.”

“…ensure progressively improved electoral process…”

“Strengthen Institutions to prevent corruption”

“Modern science will prevent corruption”

 

Nigeria

Many of Jonathan’s conversations and speeches suggest that he is taking a long view on Nigeria. He has “written off” the older generation and is creating a Nigeria in which the young population can find opportunity.  Having grown up in civil war and military dictatorships, he does not have a great deal of faith in the people of his generation. He is hoping to put the countries violent and corrupt past behind him. Perhaps drawing from the old testament, he sees himself as a post-Moses leader of the Israelites biding time in the wilderness before leading the new generation to the promised land. He is very cautious not to squander Nigeria’s petroleum based wealth on crowd pleasing gestures or unilateral adventures. His goals for Nigeria a very strategic and far beyond the headlines. Many of his promises in regards to Nigeria are purposely worded so that he makes long term goals seem like short term goals but he will almost always caveat himself with “not done overnight”.

“Nigeria must move forward”

“The young people must redefine this country”

“…..not done overnight”

President Goodluck Jonathan acts as if he is a small player in the bigger movement of his PDP party, Nigerian petroleum wealth, Nigerian development and continuing Islamic terrorism. By all accounts including his own, he is a meek and humble man, an intelligent civil servant who just happens to have executive powers over one of the largest African powers on the continent. That being said, there are many examples of Jonathan making political manoeuvres, strategic promotions and firings to achieve long term goals. Much in the same way as he was a strategic success story, he employs indirect and deliberate actions to achieve his goals.

goodluck J2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

References:

CIA World Fact Book

Fitch Ratings Agency

World Bank

NATO

SIPRI

WTO

CFR think tank

 

 

Bloomberg interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8u979tY5dE

Global Conversations interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcWJTs0Xr2Q

CNN interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlXbkRnvH88

Al Jazeera interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ56IZjwwns

Speech to voters

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFHRHz_2cho

Media Chat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuQ8w5v6Fks

Nigeria

Economy: 

  • GDP: 521 billion USD
  • Sectors: Agriculture 30.9% Industry 43% Services 26%
  • Unemployment: 24%
  • Import Partners: China 18.3%, US 10.1%, India 5.5% (2012)
  • GINI per capita: $2,710
  • Fitch Rating: BB- Stable
  • 4 Largest Cities: Lagos 11.223 million; Kano 3.375 million; Ibadan 2.949 million; Abuja 2.153 million.

People:

  • Population Size: 174 Million
  • Religion: 50% Muslim, 40% Christian, 10% indigenous beliefs
  • Media Age: 18.2 years
  • Languages: English (official), Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo (Ibo), Fulani
  • Literacy: 61.3%

Geography:

  • Total: 923,768 sq km
  • Land: 910,768 sq km
  • Water: 13,000 sq km
  • Border countries: Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger

Media:

  • Mobile Telephone Operators: Mtel (Transcorp); Airtel Nigeria (Airtel Group); Globacom; MTN Nigeria (MTN Group); Etisalat Nigeria (Etisalat); Multilinks Telkom; Starcomms; Zoom Mobile; Visafone
  • Television in Nigeria: NTA1, NTA2, Silverbird TV, AIT, Murhi International Television, ON Television, Galaxy TV, TV Continental.
  • 70 federal government-controlled national and regional TV stations; all 36 states operate TV stations; several private TV stations operational; cable and satellite TV subscription services are available;
  • Radio in Nigeria: Network of federal government-controlled national, regional, and state radio stations; roughly 40 state government-owned radio stations typically carry their own programs except for news broadcasts; about 20 private radio stations; transmissions of international broadcasters are available (2007)
  • Newspapers in Nigeria: PM News, The Sun, MW , Daily Times, Guardian, Thisday, Tribune, Punch, Vanguard      , Leadership, Nation, Blueprint, NewsDirect, Independent, Peoples Daily, Fresh Angle, FreshFacts, National Mirror, N-Observer, Daily Trust, Champion, Pointer Express, New Nigerian, BusinessDay, Desert Herald, Newsday, National Daily, Compass, KickOff-Soccer, Complete Sports
  •  Nollywood film industry earns 10 billion USD revenue (2014)

Politics:

President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua died in May 2010. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, who has already been acting president since February, was sworn in as president on May 6. On May 12 Namadi Sambo, the governor of Kaduna, was appointed vice president; he was approved by parliament on May 18 and sworn in on May 19. On May 20 Deputy Governor Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa was sworn in as governor of Kaduna.

Nigeria had established an informal and unwritten understanding where leadership alternates from North (Yoruba Dominated) to South (Ibo Dominated). Northern factions feel that after Yar’Adua’s death, a Northerner should have taken his place instead of the Southerner, Jonathan. Furthermore, Jonathan broke stood for the 2011 election and again for a second term in 2015 and this further elevates tensions within his own party (the PDP) and in wider Nigeria.

Independence: 1960

Suffrage: 18

Leadership Patterns and voting patterns:

  1. Presidency (1963-1966) Nationalist Party (NCNC)
  2. Military Government(1966-1979)
  3. Presidency (1979-1983) (NPN)
  4. Military Council (1983-1985)
  5. Presidential Military (1985-1993)
  6. Interim Presidency (1993)
  7. Provisional Council 1993-1998
  8. Presidency (1999-2007) PDP (South, Christian, Yoruba)
  9. Presidency (2007-2010) PDP (North, Islam, Fulani)(died)
  10. Presidency (2010-2011) PDP (South Christian, Ijaw)
  11. Presidency (2011- 2015) PDP (South, Christian, Ijaw)

Significantly Participates in:

  1. African Union
  2. WTO
  3. OPEC
  4. Non Aligned Movement
  5. ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States)

Military:

  • Expenditure: 2,411 Million USD
  • Active Personnel: 130,000
  • Males fit for service: 20,839,976
  • Females fit for service: 19,867,683
  • Military Commands: Army, Navy Airforce

Military Leaders:

  • Kenneth Minimah (Army)
  • Usman Oyibe Jibrin (Navy)
  • Adesola Nunayon Amosu(Airforce)

Last Engagements:

  • Niger Delta
  • Northern Mali Conflict
  • Northern Nigeria (Boko Haram)
  • Liberia
  • Military Suppliers (USD):
  • China 156 Million
  • Italy 99 Million
  • United States: 66 Million
  • Ukraine: 50 Million

Security Issues:

  • Boko Haram (Violent Islamists)
  • Niger Delta (Ethnic)
  • Narco Trafficking
  • Kidnapping
  • Piracy
  • Corporate and political corruption

Greece

Economy:
GDP: 267.1 billion USD (2014)

Sectors 80.5% services, 16% industry (2014)

Unemployment: 28%(2014)

Import Partners: 13.8% Russia, 9.5% Germany, 7.9% Italy, 7.8% Iraq(2014)

GINI per capita: 26,700 (2013)

Fitch Rating: B/Stable (2014)

People:

Population size: 10,775,557 (2014 estimate)

Religion: Greek Orthodox 98%(2014)

Median age: 43.5 years

Language: Greek

Literacy: 98.4%

Geography:
total: 131,957 sq km
land: 130,647 sq km 
water: 1,310 sq km
border countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Turkey 

Media:

Greece has three mobile telecom companies; Cosmote, Vodafone and WIND.

Television in Greece: Mega Channel, Alpha TV, ANT1, Star Channel and Skai TV.

Newspapers in Greece are highly political. Ta nea, eleftherotypia, ethnos, sport time and eleftheros typos have the highest circulation.

Internet penetration in Greece is just under 60%

Politics:

On the 25th of January 2015 in parliamentary elections, the Coalition of the Radical Left wins 36.3% of the vote (149 of 300 seats), New Democracy 27.8% (76), Golden Dawn 6.3% (17), The River 6% (17), the Communist Party 5.5% (15), the Independent Greeks 4.7% (13), and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement 4.7% (13). Turnout is 63.9%.

On 26th of January 2015 Alexis Tsipras is sworn in as prime minister. The cabinet is announced on 27th of January with Nikos Kotzias as foreign minister, Panos Kammenos as defense minister, Nikos Voutsis as interior minister, and Giannis Varoufakis as finance minister.

Modern Greek States Independence: 1821

Adult Suffrage: 18

Voting Patterns:

Conservative -1974

Conservative-1980

Socialist/Communist-1985

Conservative-1990

Socialist-1995

Conservative/Socialist 2000

Conservative-2005

Conservative-2010

Radical Left-2015

Significantly Participates in:

EU
NATO
WTO
Schengen Convention

Military:

Expenditure 36,739,000,000 Euros(2013)

Active Personnel: 109,070 (2012)

2,032,378 males fit for service(2013)

2,016,552 females fit for service(2013)

9 months conscription

Military commands: 1st Army, Supreme Military Commands of the Interior and Islands, Supreme Military Support Command, NATO Deployable Corps.

Military Leaders and strength(2015):

Michail Kostarkos

Christos Manolas (Army)

1,913 MBTs, 4,209 IFVs & APCs, and 4,840 artillery pieces

Evangelos Apostolakis (Navy)

39 Warships, 9 Submarines, 6 Patrol Boats, 57 Fleet Support & other Ships, 21 Aircraft

Evangelos Tournas(Air Force)

523 + aircraft

Last military engagement (Libya 2011)

Military Suppliers:

USA: 3856 Million

Germany: 2382 Million

France: 1192 Million

Security Issues:

Turkey (Agean Sea)

Macedonia (Naming and claims)

Albania (Immigration)

Drug Trafficking

Other military facts:

Until 16th January 2001 there were approximately 10 NATO “B-61” nuclear weapons stationed at Araxos military base in Greece. The authorities had always refused to comment on the presence or absence of these bombs, throughout the time that they were based there.